Climate change is already having devastating effects in Argentina. This report collates scientific projections of how climate impacts will play out up to 2050 and 2100, on low, medium and high emissions pathways.
The science shows that Argentina will experience devastating climate impacts if it follows a high-emissions pathway. Without urgent action, Argentina will see a 65% increase in the frequency of agricultural drought by 2050 and heatwaves will last more than 6247% longer. The combination of sea level rise, coastal erosion and fiercer weather will cause chaos for Argentina’s economy, which stands to lose around 8% of GDP by 2100.
The faster Argentina adopts low-carbon policies, the less the climate impacts cascade and the more manageable they become. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will see the cost of climate impacts in Argentina drop to just 0.71% of its GDP by 2050 and 2.5% by 2100.
Image © Matías Garay / Greenpeace
Explore past, present and future scenarios for climate change in Argentina. This section uses the most up to date climate science models to describe how climate change will affect temperature and precipitation trends in Argentina. The research shows that on a high carbon pathway, temperatures in Argentina could increase by as much as 1.6°C by 2050. On a low carbon pathway this drops to 1°C.
How have sea temperatures changed in the oceans surrounding Argentina, and what do future climate trends mean for the vital ecosystems and livelihoods supported by Argentina’s oceans? This section shows how surface sea temperatures in Argentina could increase by 1°C by 2050 in a high carbon scenario, triggering a sharp rise in ocean acidification and reducing fish catch potential by as much as 3.3%.
A changing climate could have devastating effects on Argentina’s coastal settlements, infrastructure and ecosystems. Rising sea levels, coastal erosion and changing storm patterns could see 0.02 million people exposed to devastating floods by 2050, if it follows a high carbon pathway. Following a low carbon pathway and investing in climate-resilient coastal infrastructure will help Argentina avoid the worst coastal impacts.
Clean water is the foundation of all life. This section shows the increasing impacts from climate change threaten our access to water in Argentina. Longer droughts, rising sea levels and more extreme weather will increase in the coming decades, choking off our most precious resource. In turn, that impacts agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure and tourism – causing massive economic costs. Only a low-carbon pathway can limit the damage.
Agriculture is a core element of Argentina’s economy, contributing approximately 4.4% of the country’s annual GDP. This section shows the past, present and future impacts of climate change on Argentina’s agriculture sector. It shows how climate change will impact crop productivity and put additional strain on Argentina’s water resources, with droughts causing water demand to increase by up to 11.1% by 2050 – even in a low carbon scenario.
Forests are key to clean healthy air – supporting thriving ecosystems and economies. This section shows the past, present and future impacts of climate change on forests in Argentina. If carbon levels remain high, huge losses in forest land will grow, damaging Argentina’s agriculture, forestry and tourism industries. With urgent action, a low-carbon pathway will protect our forests from the worst impacts.
Cities in Argentina face many threats from climate change. Unless we take urgent action, increasing extreme weather will batter urban communities across the country – damaging crucial infrastructure and causing massive economic losses. Increasing heatwaves and worsening air quality will harm urban residents’ health and even cost many their lives.
The health of our planet is essential to the health of people in Argentina. Without urgent action, climate change will drive longer heatwaves, rising sea levels and deadly storms, harming Argentina’s economy. Higher poverty means worse health impacts. But on a low-carbon pathway, Argentina can improve health outcomes and save lives.
Rising temperatures and more severe heatwaves will affect Argentina’s energy system and change the profile of its energy demand.
Heatwaves, droughts, fires, floods and brutal storms. Argentina faces multiple threats from climate change. Across sectors – agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, tourism and more – the costs to the economy could be massive. Without urgent action, Argentina stands to lose 2.78% of its GDP by 2050. That rises to 8.17% by 2100. By investing in a low-carbon economy now, Argentina can limit those losses to 0.71% by 2050.
This section explores Argentina’s historic and current emissions as compared with global emissions, and the targets and commitments it has put in place. Argentina is the 18th biggest emitter among the G20 countries. Urgent political action is necessary in Argentina to secure a low carbon future.