Russia is already experiencing the devastating effects of climate change. This report collates scientific projections of how climate impacts will play out up to 2050 and 2100, on low, medium and high emissions pathways.
The science shows that Russia will experience worsening climate impacts if it follows a high-emissions pathway. Without urgent action, heatwaves will last 1,026% longer, increasing the length of agricultural drought by 31%. Sea level rise in the Black Sea will cause 56% of beaches to retreat to half their size. The combination of sea level rise, coastal erosion and fiercer weather will cause chaos for Russia’s economy, which stands to lose around 3.08% of GDP by 2050.
The faster Russia adopts low-carbon policies, the less the climate impacts cascade and the more manageable they become. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will see the cost of climate impacts in Russia drop to just 1.3% of its GDP by 2050.
Image © Julia Petrenko / Greenpeace
Explore past, present and future scenarios for climate change in Russia. This section uses the most up to date climate science models to describe how climate change will affect temperature and precipitation trends in Russia. The research shows that on a high carbon pathway, temperatures in Russia could increase by as much as 3.9°C by 2050. On a low carbon pathway this drops to 2.6°C.
How have sea temperatures changed in the oceans surrounding Russia, and what do future climate trends mean for the vital ecosystems and livelihoods supported by Russia’s oceans? This section shows how surface sea temperatures in Russia could increase by 2.1°C by 2050 in a high carbon scenario, triggering a sharp rise in ocean acidification and reducing fish catch potential by as much as 34.4%.
A changing climate could have devastating effects on Russia’s coastal settlements, infrastructure and ecosystems. Rising sea levels, coastal erosion and changing storm patterns could see 0.21 million people exposed to devastating floods by 2050, if it follows a high carbon pathway. Following a low carbon pathway and investing in climate-resilient coastal infrastructure will help Russia avoid the worst coastal impacts.
Clean water is the foundation of all life. This section shows the increasing impacts from climate change threaten our access to water in Russia. Longer droughts, rising sea levels and more extreme weather will increase in the coming decades, choking off our most precious resource. In turn, that impacts agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure and tourism – causing massive economic costs. Only a low-carbon pathway can limit the damage.
Agriculture is a core element of Russia’s economy, contributing approximately 3.8% of the country’s annual GDP. This section shows the past, present and future impacts of climate change on Russia’s agriculture sector. It shows how climate change will impact crop productivity and put additional strain on Russia’s water resources, with droughts causing water demand to increase by up to 9.3% by 2050 – even in a low carbon scenario.
Forests are key to clean healthy air – supporting thriving ecosystems and economies. This section shows the past, present and future impacts of climate change on forests in Russia. If carbon levels remain high, huge losses in forest land will grow, damaging Russia’s agriculture, forestry and tourism industries. With urgent action, a low-carbon pathway will protect our forests from the worst impacts.
Cities in Russia face many threats from climate change. Unless we take urgent action, increasing extreme weather will batter urban communities across the country – damaging crucial infrastructure and causing massive economic losses. Increasing heatwaves and worsening air quality will harm urban residents’ health and even cost many their lives.
The health of our planet is essential to the health of people in Russia. Without urgent action, climate change will drive longer heatwaves, rising sea levels and deadly storms, harming Russia’s economy. Higher poverty means worse health impacts. But on a low-carbon pathway, Russia can improve health outcomes and save lives.
Rising temperatures and more severe heatwaves will affect Russia’s energy system and change the profile of its energy demand.
Heatwaves, droughts, fires, floods and brutal storms. Russia faces multiple threats from climate change. Across sectors – agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, tourism and more – the costs to the economy could be massive. Without urgent action, Russia stands to lose 3.08% of its GDP by 2050. That rises to 8.93% by 2100. By investing in a low-carbon economy now, Russia can limit those losses to 1.3% by 2050.
This section explores Russia’s historic and current emissions as compared with global emissions, and the targets and commitments it has put in place. Russia is the 5th biggest emitter among the G20 countries. Urgent political action is necessary in Russia to secure a low carbon future.