For Mexico, the effects of climate change are already devastating. This report collates scientific projections of how climate impacts will play out up to 2050 and 2100, on low, medium and high emissions pathways.
The science shows that Mexico will experience worsening climate impacts if it follows a high-emissions pathway. Without urgent action, heatwaves will last 4005% longer – driving 34% longer agricultural droughts. The combination of sea level rise, coastal erosion and fiercer weather will cause chaos for Mexico’s economy, which stands to lose around 1.97% of GDP by 2050.
The faster Mexico adopts low-carbon policies, the less the climate impacts cascade and the more manageable they become. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will see the cost of climate impacts in Mexico drop to just 1.1% of its GDP by 2050.
Image © Nian Shan / Greenpeace
Explore past, present and future scenarios for climate change in Mexico. This section uses the most up to date climate science models to describe how climate change will affect temperature and precipitation trends in Mexico. The research shows that on a high carbon pathway, temperatures in Mexico could increase by as much as 2.1°C by 2050. On a low carbon pathway this drops to 1.3°C.
How have sea temperatures changed in the oceans surrounding Mexico, and what do future climate trends mean for the vital ecosystems and livelihoods supported by Mexico’s oceans? This section shows how surface sea temperatures in Mexico could increase by 1.5°C by 2050 in a high carbon scenario, triggering a sharp rise in ocean acidification and reducing fish catch potential by as much as 17%.
A changing climate could have devastating effects on Mexico’s coastal settlements, infrastructure and ecosystems. Rising sea levels, coastal erosion and changing storm patterns could see 0.19 million people exposed to devastating floods by 2050, if it follows a high carbon pathway. Following a low carbon pathway and investing in climate-resilient coastal infrastructure will help Mexico avoid the worst coastal impacts.
Clean water is the foundation of all life. This section shows the increasing impacts from climate change threaten our access to water in Mexico. Longer droughts, rising sea levels and more extreme weather will increase in the coming decades, choking off our most precious resource. In turn, that impacts agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure and tourism – causing massive economic costs. Only a low-carbon pathway can limit the damage.
Agriculture is a core element of Mexico’s economy, contributing approximately 3.2% of the country’s annual GDP. This section shows the past, present and future impacts of climate change on Mexico’s agriculture sector. It shows how climate change will impact crop productivity and put additional strain on Mexico’s water resources, with droughts causing water demand to increase by up to 21.6% by 2050 – even in a low carbon scenario.
Forests are key to clean healthy air – supporting thriving ecosystems and economies. This section shows the past, present and future impacts of climate change on forests in Mexico. If carbon levels remain high, huge losses in forest land will grow, damaging Mexico’s agriculture, forestry and tourism industries. With urgent action, a low-carbon pathway will protect our forests from the worst impacts.
Cities in Mexico face many threats from climate change. Unless we take urgent action, increasing extreme weather will batter urban communities across the country – damaging crucial infrastructure and causing massive economic losses. Increasing heatwaves and worsening air quality will harm urban residents’ health and even cost many their lives.
The health of our planet is essential to the health of people in Mexico. Without urgent action, climate change will drive longer heatwaves, rising sea levels and deadly storms, harming Mexico’s economy. Higher poverty means worse health impacts. But on a low-carbon pathway, Mexico can improve health outcomes and save lives.
Rising temperatures and more severe heatwaves will affect Mexico’s energy system and change the profile of its energy demand.
Heatwaves, droughts, fires, floods and brutal storms. Mexico faces multiple threats from climate change. Across sectors – agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, tourism and more – the costs to the economy could be massive. Without urgent action, Mexico stands to lose 1.97% of its GDP by 2050. That rises to 5.54% by 2100. By investing in a low-carbon economy now, Mexico can limit those losses to 1.1% by 2050.
This section explores Mexico’s historic and current emissions as compared with global emissions, and the targets and commitments it has put in place. Mexico is the 11th biggest emitter among the G20 countries. Urgent political action is necessary in Mexico to secure a low carbon future.